Make a New Normal

What if China fails?

I was sitting in Barnes & Noble a few weeks ago and some book title I can no longer remember caught my eye.  It made me think of this question: what if China fails?  It got me thinking.  What if the Chinese economy collapsed today?  What would it mean for all of us here?

This is particularly important in light of the excuses given for the trumped up debt debate (a blatant excuse to impose an austerity economy) when it began in April.  These massive loans are being taken out from the Chinese!  Won’t the Chinese inevitably overtake us the global superpower?  Fear our Chinese overlords!

So I got to thinking about that and the irony of the Chinese superpower equation demands that the Chinese economy grows while ours continues to falter.  It requires an Us vs. Them arrangement of direct, though unrelated, competitiveness.  Isolation, not integration.

The classic dualistic paradigm says we have a choice between isolation and integration.  We can either worry only about ourselves or we can interact in multiple ways with our global partners.  But we have to choose.

Now, we know this is ridiculous, or at least most of us do.  From the flippant likes of Thomas Friedman to super serious Paul Krugman, there is a clear association with mutual dependency.  We are not merely business partners with most of the world, we are essentially married to every other country.  This isn’t simply the effect of globalization (though that sped up the process).  It is because we are so dependent on one another for survival.  We don’t simply rely on the Chinese to loan us money and buy our currency, but our very survival is dependent on China’s survival.  From food and textiles to currency and military support.

If anything, the conflict in the EU should show this to us.  The difficulty for Ireland and Greece to bring their economies “in check” is not based on their overspending, but how much was leveraged in the toxic asset mess of 2007-8.  Their economies crashed, just as ours did, because of banks and the reliance we all have on the banking industry.  They were dependent on the likes of Bank of America and Merrill Lynch being trustworthy and S & P granting them status as trustworthy.  The pulling of Italy and France into this is not related to their individual health, but in mutual relationship, even though France doesn’t actually have a problem!  Now Germany, the healthiest of the bunch, is having to deal with being the healthiest of the bunch!

This might lead some to retreat into isolationism as the patriotic option, to save ourselves and not worry if the world burns.  This, of course, is counter-Biblical and goes against Jesus’s dual commandment.  And it is just plain stupid.  I once again direct you to the prisoner’s dilemma which demonstrates time and again that the greatest example of personal benefit comes from 1) helping your neighbor and 2) relying on them to do the same to you.  Humanity is so often trapped in the foolish attempt to maximize individual gain at others’ expense, rather than deal with the truth of our mutual vulnerability and need.

We are connected to China, Greece, and England.  We are dependent on them for our very survival.  That doesn’t make us weak, but all of us strong.  For after all, if dependence were such an inappropriate choice, then why did Jesus come as a baby?

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