The common wisdom on electric vehicles was that they were for rich nerds. Obviously people who don’t want their cars to be cool. The industry assumed that designer cars didn’t match the electric car market. So nobody tried.

Betting on a cool electric car now seems brilliant. So we ascribe brilliance to the one who makes that decision. Brilliance, foresight, and acumen.

Over time, these attributes seem far more like our projection than accurate assessments.

It is frequently hard to tell the difference between brilliance and simple contrary thinking. Which is why the saying is “I’d rather be lucky than good.”

One good decision can bring a big personality to the top. But as new decisions pile up, his mediocrity always becomes obvious. At that point, all of us would rather he be good.